Glut of oil could push gasoline prices back down below $2 a gallon
Foto: Gasoline prices are shown at filling stations in Chicago this week. One energy expert says oil could fall to as little as $20 a barrel by the end of the year. That could push gasoline prices back down to $2 a gallon, prices not seen since last fall’s slide slammed retail gasoline to its lowest value in four years.
Energy experts say oil supply is outstripping demand. Eventually suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market, they predict.
By Ronald D. White
Frank Polich/ Bloomberg News
July 4, 2009
A year after oil hit a record closing price, the commodity's price is way down -- and may fall significantly further as supply continues to dwarf demand.
Downward pressure on oil prices is so great that crude could trade for as little as $20 a barrel by the end of the year -- less than a third of what it traded for this week and an 86% drop from its peak last y
That could push gasoline prices back down to $2 a gallon, prices last seen this March after last fall's slide slammed retail gasoline to its lowest value in four years.
The reasons are simple, said Philip K. Verleger Jr., an expert on energy markets at the University of Calgary in Canada: The still-sputtering economy has lessened demand at a time when there is already a big surplus of oil.
For eight straight months, oil supplies have been running about 2 million barrels a day higher than the global demand of 83 million barrels a day, Verleger said. Eventually, he and others predicted, suppliers will tire of paying to store all of the surplus oil and flood the market.
"That is the largest and longest continuous glut of supply that I have seen in 30 years of following energy prices," Verleger said. "It's a huge surplus. There has never been anything like it."
The market will eventually correct itself, pushing prices down, Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co., wrote in a note to investors. "Excessive speculation and a weak dollar have lifted oil prices to levels not sustainable by market fundamentals," Gheit wrote.
Crude has traded in the range of about $70 a barrel for much of the last month, closing Thursday at $66.73. The markets were closed Friday.
With so much oil available and so little need for that amount, investors, oil companies and even some banks have bought and stored surplus oil everywhere they can. By one estimate, before oil surged to its high this year of $73.38 a barrel in June, as many as 67 supertankers -- each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil -- were being used as floating storage.
Verleger said it represented a largely risk-free investment for those who could sell that oil for huge profits on the futures markets.
But the glut has gone on for so long, he said, that the cost of all of that storage is bound to rise. When it rises enough, some suppliers will refuse to pay and a lot of that oil will be dumped onto the market.
"Oil will drop to $20 a barrel by the end of the year because this situation just cannot be sustained," Verleger said.
Bob van der Valk, a fuel price analyst, predicted that oil would drop to $40 by the end of the year and that Californians would be paying about $2 a gallon for regular gasoline.
"In normal years you have seasonally adjusted pricing, and 2009 is looking like our first normal year since 2006," Van der Valk said. "By year's end, oil and gasoline will be coming down."
That would be a result similar to 2008, when crude oil futures went from their highest close of $145.29 a barrel last July 3 to less than $34 a barrel in December, and gasoline prices dropped accordingly.
Other analysts said such thinking was premature.
Phil Flynn, vice president and senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Co., said the real test would be in the coming weeks, when oil's direction would become clearer.
"It's too soon to say that a correction is about to occur," Flynn said.
ron.white@latimes.com
WORLD OIL PRICE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW USD20 PER BARREL
DUA TOKOH WANITA MALAYSIA DI PERSADA ANTARABANGSA
Berita Ringkas Untuk renungan: 
Tan Sri Zarinah, CEO Suruhanjaya Sekuriti Malaysia mendahului senarai penerima Anugerah Industri Kewangan dari Sidang Kemuncak Sukuk London kerana sumbangan beliau terhadap pembangunan Pasaran Modal Islam.
Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Gabenor Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) berkata di Paris bahawa matawang US akan kekal menjadi matawang utama dunia.
Kuwait mahu harga minyak dunia kekal di paras USD60 setong.
HARGA BAHAN API MALAYSIA BELUM TURUN
Kerajaan Malaysia amat pantas dan cekap menaikkan harga bahan api tempoh hari. Sehingga kini belum ada ura-ura untuk menurunkan harga diesel dan petrol walhal harga minyak mentah di pasaran dunia telah turun (sila lihat graf). Kesan berganda dan bersinergi kenaikan harga bahan api dengan harga barangan keperluan industri serta asasi seperti makanan tidak mungkin dapat dibendung atau dikurangkan. 
Harga minyak dunia turun, kerajaan didesak tunaikan janji - Dr Hatta
Intan Abdullah
Harakahdaily
KUALA LUMPUR, 29 Julai (Hrkh) - PAS mendesak kerajaan Barisan Nasional (BN) menurunkan harga minyak di negara ini selari dengan penurunan harga minyak dunia.
Dalam satu kenyataan kepada Harakahdaily pagi tadi, Bendahari PAS, Dr Mohd Hatta Ramli meminta kerajaan agar bersikap lebih serius malah mengotakan janji mereka yang sebelum ini akan menurunkan harga minyak selari dengan perubahan harga minyak di peringkat antarabangsa.
"Kerajaan perlu mengotakan janji mereka, kerana sebelum ini Dato' Shahrir Samad sendiri pernah berjanji akan menurunkan harga minyak berdasarkan harga minyak dunia," ujarnya.
ImageMengulas perkembangan semasa,Dr Hatta berkata harga minyak di Singapura telah pun diturunkan beberapa kali dalam tahun ini namun, Malaysia yang berstatus negara pengeluar minyak atau negara Opec masih tidak mampu melaksanakannya.
Beliau menempelak kerajaan Malaysia yang masih tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda bahawa mereka serius membela masalah dan kebajikan rakyat.
"Ia merupakan suatu tamparan hebat kepada Malaysia kerana Singapura merupakan negara pengimport pun berusaha untuk menangani masalah rakyat mereka sedangkan kita sebagai negara pengeluar minyak tidak mempunyai apa-apa inisiatif bagi menjaga kepentingan rakyat," katanya.
Menurutnya, apa yang terjadi mencerminkan sikap kerajaan yang tidak prihatin malah langsung tidak mempedulikan nasib dan penderitaan rakyat.
"Kita lihat tiada inisiatif diambil pihak kerajaan dalam meringankan beban harga minyak dan inflasi tinggi yang ditanggung rakyat, tetapi masih berada di peringkat akan mengkaji harga minyak pasaran," katanya lagi.
Pada masa yang sama, beliau berkeyakinan bahawa harga minyak negara ini berpotensi untuk kembali kepada harga asalnya selari dengan penurunan harga minyak dunia yang semakin giat berlaku.
"Adalah tidak mustahil jika harga minyak kita boleh kembali seperti asalnya, sebab itu saranan Dato' Seri Anwar bahawa Pakatan Rakyat boleh menurunkan harga minyak sebaik memerintah.
"Jika singapura boleh melakukannya, kita sepatutnya lebih mampu menurunkannya," tegasnya.
Menurut laporan beberapa media di negara jiran tersebut, harga minyak petrol turun lagi semalam, sebanyak 10 sen setiap liter yakni penurunan terbesar sejak Ogos 2003 dan ia merupakan kali kelima harga minyak petrol turun dalam tempoh 20 hari.
Semalam, langkah tersebut dimulakan oleh Shell, yang kemudian diikuti Caltex, Singapore Petroleum Company (SPC) dan Mobil.
Dengan penurunan harga itu, harga minyak petrol sebelum ditolak diskaun di kedai minyak sekarang adalah $2.110 seliter bagi petrol oktana 98, $2.036 seliter bagi petrol oktana 95 dan $2.003 seliter bagi petrol oktana 92.
Harga minyak petrol premium sebelum ditolak diskaun pula adalah $2.239 seliter bagi Shell V-Power dan $2.236 seliter bagi Caltex Platinum.
Menurut para penganalisis, harga minyak petrol turun kebelakangan ini kerana kebimbangan tentang permintaan minyak semakin reda.
Harga minyak mentah mencecah paras AS$100 setong pada awal tahun ini, sebelum meningkat ke beberapa paras rekod akibat kebimbangan mengenai permintaan minyak yang terus bertambah ekoran ketegangan antara Barat dengan Iran mengenai program nuklear Teheran.
Ketidakstabilan di Nigeria, salah sebuah negara pengeluar minyak Afrika utama, turut menjadi faktor, kata para pemerhati.
Berdasarkan laporan yang dikeluarkan Dowjones Newswires, harga minyak boleh jatuh ke paras AS$70 dan AS$80 setong jika dolar Amerika terus kukuh dan kebimbangan mengenai Iran berkurangan, kata ketua Pertubuhan Negara-Negara Pengeksport Minyak (Opec), Chakib Khelil, Sabtu lalu.
SPEKULATOR BUKAN OPEC PENENTU HARGA MINYAK DUNIA
Pasaran Hadapan Komoditi atau (Commodity Future Market) digunakan oleh bank, petani, pengeluar atau pengeksport, pengurus dana dan pengguna sesuatu komoditi sebagai satu kaedah bertahan terhadap kerugian yang mungkin berlaku ("hedging"). Ia juga merupakan suatu spekulasi tentang kenaikan atau penurunan sesuatu komoditi seperti petroleum.
Trading atau perniagaan (jual beli) kontrak hadapan memiliki beberapa kelebihan berbanding dengan perniagaan saham. Pertama ialah "leverage" atau peluang membuat duit yang berlipat kali ganda berbanding dengan modal yang dikeluarkan. Dalam kes petroleum, untuk membeli saham komoditi minyak petroleum adalah mahal tetapi untuk membeli kontrak hadapan minyak petroleum adalah sangat murah. Kenaikan harga satu peratus diterjemahkan kepada keuntungan berpuluh peratus. Kedua, perniagaan kontrak pasaran hadapan dikenakan komisyen yang sangat rendah tetapi komisyen untuk membeli atau menjual saham adalah tinggi. Ketiga, perniagaan pasaran hadapan memberi keuntungan kepada peniaga tak kira sama ada pasaran bullish atau bearish. Walau bagaimanapun pasaran hadapan mempunyai risikonya yang tersendiri.
Petikan dari akhbar the Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/02/AR2008060200091.html
"Naturally, since the past few years, the US financial sector has begun to turn its attention from currency and stock markets to commodity markets. According to The Economist, about $260 billion has been invested into the commodity market -- up nearly 20 times from what it was in 2003.
Coinciding with a weak dollar and this speculative interest of the US financial sector, prices of commodities have soared globally.
And most of these investments are bets placed by hedge and pension funds, always on the lookout for risky but high-yielding investments. What is indeed interesting to note here is that unlike margin requirements for stocks which are as high as 50 per cent in many markets, the margin requirements for commodities is a mere 5-7 per cent.
This implies that with an outlay of a mere $260 billion these speculators would be able to take positions of approximately $5 trillion -- yes, $5 trillion! -- in the futures markets. It is estimated that half of these are bets placed on oil.
Today's oil prices are believed to be determined by the four Anglo-American financial companies-turned-oil traders, viz., Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, J P Morgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley. It is only they who have any idea about who is entering into oil futures or derivative contracts. It is also they who are placing bets on oil prices and in the process ensuring that the prices of oil futures go up by the day.
But how does the increase in the price of this oil in the futures market determine the prices of oil in the spot markets? Crucially, does speculation in oil influence and determine the prices of oil in the spot markets?
Answering these questions as to whether speculation has supercharged the demand for oil The Economist, in its recent issue, states: 'But that is plain wrong. Such speculators do not own real oil. Every barrel they buy in the futures markets they sell back again before the contract ends. That may raise the price of 'paper barrels,' but not of the black stuff refiners turn into petrol. It is true that high futures prices could lead someone to hoard oil today in the hope of a higher price tomorrow. But inventories are not especially full just now and there are few signs of hoarding''.
Rediff, India -
Naturally, it has been opined by experts that since the advent of oil futures, oil prices are no longer controlled by OPEC (Organization of Petroleum ...
Watchdogs to probe oil price rise
European shares move higher as oil retreats
Speculating on oil: Wall Street is evil!
Graf pengeluaran dan penggunan minyak dunia
Malaysia ajak dunia gantung pasaran hadapan minyak
Oleh Azman Zakaria dan Sazarina Shahrim
Sumber Berita Harian Online
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia mengajak komuniti antarabangsa mengkaji kemungkinan menggantung urus niaga minyak dalam pasaran hadapan bagi menangani kenaikan mendadak harga bahan api itu yang turut melonjakkan harga komoditi lain, termasuk makanan.
Ketika mengemukakan saranan itu, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkata, komuniti antarabangsa perlu mengambil langkah berani yang belum pernah dilakukan itu untuk mengelak bidaan spekulatif yang menyebabkan kenaikan melampau harga minyak.
Perdana Menteri memberi contoh Jepun ketika ini sudah pun menggantung urus niaga beras dalam pasaran hadapan serta menawarkan untuk menjual beras daripada stok penimbalnya pada harga lebih rendah.
“Kita harus mengkaji langkah sedemikian bagi kemungkinan melaksanakannya untuk pasaran minyak, iaitu penyumbang penting yang melonjakkan harga komoditi lain.
“Semua langkah ini tentunya memerlukan rundingan dan perjanjian pada peringkat antarabangsa,” katanya dalam ucaptama pada Rundingan Meja Bulat ke-22 Asia Pasifik, di sini semalam.
Turut hadir, Raja Muda Perak, Raja Dr Nazrin Shah, Pengerusi dan Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Institut Kajian Strategik dan Antarabangsa (Isis) Malaysia, Datuk Seri Mohamed Jawhar Hassan serta Pengerusi Isis-Asean, Prof Dr Carolina Hernandez.
Abdullah berkata, kenaikan mendadak harga bahan makanan, minyak dan komoditi memerlukan maklum balas global kerana usaha peringkat serantau dan nasional biasanya terhad.
Katanya, beban kenaikan harga yang kini sebahagian besarnya ditanggung negara membangun dan miskin, dengan mudah boleh melimpah kepada masyarakat maju. Read More “SPEKULATOR BUKAN OPEC PENENTU HARGA MINYAK DUNIA” »»
